Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $61,209$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.51 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,806.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 42.1)}}\) (asimptote \(58,806.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,732$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,471.7}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,471.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,536$ on 2020-06-27

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $311,727$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(4.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{301,632.6}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.3)}}\) (asimptote \(301,632.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $43,598$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(8.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,393.4}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(41,393.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $266,765$ on 2020-06-27

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $248,469$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(7.65 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{236,538.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 35.6)}}\) (asimptote \(236,538.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,341$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(9.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,403.3}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 34.2)}}\) (asimptote \(27,403.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $69,752$ on 2020-06-27

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $240,136$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(6.55 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{233,056.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(233,056.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,716$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(8.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,676.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(33,676.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,836$ on 2020-06-27

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $65,137$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(4.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87,806.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.0)}}\) (asimptote \(87,806.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,280$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(829 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,097.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,097.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $59,857$ on 2020-06-27

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $199,473$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(5.22 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{188,177.3}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 40.8)}}\) (asimptote \(188,177.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,781$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(7.84 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,777.0}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(28,777.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $93,919$ on 2020-06-27

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $50,282$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.26 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,549.4}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 41.5)}}\) (asimptote \(47,549.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,124$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,001.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(6,001.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $43,972$ on 2020-06-27

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,437$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(5.99 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,036.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(25,036.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,734$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(361 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,676.8}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,676.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $339$ on 2020-06-27

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

San Marino recovered 100%
Malta recovered 93%
Estonia recovered 92%
Italy recovered 84%
Lithuania recovered 78%
Hungary recovered 57%
Belarus recovered 35%
Poland recovered 15%

San Marino⮸

Population $33,931$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $698$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(187 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{697.0}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(697.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(19.2 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(81.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41.5}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 24.6)}}\) (asimptote \(41.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $0$ on 2020-06-27

Malta⮸

Population $441,543$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $670$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(182 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{637.3}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(637.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-06-27

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-06-27

Estonia⮸

Population $1,326,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,986$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(638 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,875.7}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,875.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(26.6 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67.9}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 24.2)}}\) (asimptote \(67.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $105$ on 2020-06-27

Lithuania⮸

Population $2,722,289$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,813$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(593 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,674.1}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 29.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,674.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $78$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(19.6 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(77.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $232$ on 2020-06-27