Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $61,209$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.51 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,806.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 42.1)}}\) (asimptote \(58,806.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,732$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,471.7}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,471.7\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,536$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $311,727$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(4.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{301,632.6}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.3)}}\) (asimptote \(301,632.6\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $43,598$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(8.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,393.4}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(41,393.4\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $266,765$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $248,469$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(7.65 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{236,538.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 35.6)}}\) (asimptote \(236,538.7\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,341$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(9.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,403.3}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 34.2)}}\) (asimptote \(27,403.3\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $69,752$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $240,136$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(6.55 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{233,056.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(233,056.1\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,716$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(8.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,676.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(33,676.5\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,836$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $65,137$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(4.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87,806.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.0)}}\) (asimptote \(87,806.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,280$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(829 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,097.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,097.7\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $59,857$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $199,473$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(5.22 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{188,177.3}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 40.8)}}\) (asimptote \(188,177.3\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,781$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(7.84 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,777.0}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(28,777.0\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $93,919$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $50,282$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.26 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,549.4}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 41.5)}}\) (asimptote \(47,549.4\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,124$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,001.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(6,001.7\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $43,972$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,437$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(5.99 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,036.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(25,036.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,734$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(361 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,676.8}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,676.8\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $339$ on 2020-06-27